What an interesting thesis! Could you clarify how buying into DeSci equates to shorting academia? Aren’t most scientists in the DeSci space also college graduates?
I'd like to know the odds of "success" of blue-sky R&D. Let's look at the known economic models
- Bell Labs ... industrial R&D supported by an effective monopoly - sorta adopted by Japanese keiretsu which conglomerates are actually supplier-networks + export-marketing
- Fraunhofer institutes ... closely tied to manufacturing and training
The PRC model of shanzai manufacturing is hard to pin down plus their indigenous IP is mixed ... arguably entire sectors are not-profitable so not sustainable without state lifeline & bank credit.
The fundamental problem with R&D is who absorbs the losses from failures?
With the success (failure) rates of starting-up, would this even be 0.00001% scaleable? Rather, what if universities changed their incentives and structure? Would you short Olin? World over (including us - Atria University in India), there are experiments in building "non-traditional" universities. Need more people to support those.
Interesting parallel - dating apps might be another system hitting this 'Tragedy of Scale.' The stats are strikingly similar to academia's inequality: top 10% of profiles get 90% of attention, creating massive disparities in access to meaningful connections. Just as top institutions gatekeep education, dating apps have inadvertently created their own form of social gatekeeping. Makes you wonder what other social systems are ripe for this kind of analysis.
What an interesting thesis! Could you clarify how buying into DeSci equates to shorting academia? Aren’t most scientists in the DeSci space also college graduates?
I'd like to know the odds of "success" of blue-sky R&D. Let's look at the known economic models
- Bell Labs ... industrial R&D supported by an effective monopoly - sorta adopted by Japanese keiretsu which conglomerates are actually supplier-networks + export-marketing
- Fraunhofer institutes ... closely tied to manufacturing and training
The PRC model of shanzai manufacturing is hard to pin down plus their indigenous IP is mixed ... arguably entire sectors are not-profitable so not sustainable without state lifeline & bank credit.
The fundamental problem with R&D is who absorbs the losses from failures?
With the success (failure) rates of starting-up, would this even be 0.00001% scaleable? Rather, what if universities changed their incentives and structure? Would you short Olin? World over (including us - Atria University in India), there are experiments in building "non-traditional" universities. Need more people to support those.
Interesting parallel - dating apps might be another system hitting this 'Tragedy of Scale.' The stats are strikingly similar to academia's inequality: top 10% of profiles get 90% of attention, creating massive disparities in access to meaningful connections. Just as top institutions gatekeep education, dating apps have inadvertently created their own form of social gatekeeping. Makes you wonder what other social systems are ripe for this kind of analysis.
Love it Adam. That’s why I started “book club” on my YouTube channel https://youtube.com/@andrewduggleby?si=0dARIAa8VCtFePpv
Couldn't agree more Adam!